Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,294$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(619 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $153$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(36.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(117.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $703$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,616$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(102.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,686.3}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,686.3\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,981$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(776 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,941.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,941.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,135$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $248,229$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(8.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,427.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,427.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,166$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,376.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,376.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,474$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,713,540$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.53 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,165,455.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 150.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,165,455.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $155,402$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,873.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 57.4)}}\) (asimptote \(139,873.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,044,692$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $307,251$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{289,362.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.5)}}\) (asimptote \(289,362.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46,295$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,107.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(44,107.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $259,511$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $81,012$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,465.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(91,465.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,744$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,562.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,562.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $75,268$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $212,111$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191,888.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(191,888.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,154$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,890.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,890.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,363$ on 2020-08-03