Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,294$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(619 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.0\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $153$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(36.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(117.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $703$ on 2020-08-03

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,616$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(102.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,686.3}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(31,686.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,981$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(776 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,941.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,941.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,135$ on 2020-08-03

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $248,229$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(8.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,427.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,427.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,166$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,376.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,376.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,474$ on 2020-08-03

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,713,540$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.53 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,165,455.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 150.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,165,455.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $155,402$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,873.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 57.4)}}\) (asimptote \(139,873.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,044,692$ on 2020-08-03

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $307,251$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(7.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{289,362.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.5)}}\) (asimptote \(289,362.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46,295$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,107.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(44,107.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $259,511$ on 2020-08-03

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,012$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,465.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(91,465.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,744$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,562.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,562.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75,268$ on 2020-08-03

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $212,111$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(7.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191,888.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(191,888.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,154$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,890.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,890.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,363$ on 2020-08-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Korea, South recovered 90%
Turkey recovered 87%
Belarus recovered 82%
Pakistan recovered 77%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 74%
Sri Lanka recovered 68%
United Arab Emirates recovered 65%
Mauritania recovered 65%
Bahrain recovered 53%
Kuwait recovered 49%
Azerbaijan recovered 48%
Portugal recovered 47%
Saudi Arabia recovered 44%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 40%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 31%
Armenia recovered 30%
Paraguay recovered 27%
Russia recovered 23%
Egypt recovered 17%
South Africa recovered 13%
North Macedonia recovered 13%
Uzbekistan recovered 5%

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,423$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(6.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(139.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,363.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 21.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,363.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $301$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(281.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $770$ on 2020-08-03

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $233,851$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(6.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,656.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(213,656.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,747$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,248.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,248.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,607$ on 2020-08-03

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,166$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(9.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,404.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 72.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67,404.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $571$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(70 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{633.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 77.3)}}\) (asimptote \(633.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,652$ on 2020-08-03

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $280,461$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,359.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.1)}}\) (asimptote \(294,359.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,999$ on 2020-08-03

Best fit exponential: \(451 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,476.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 81.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,476.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,065$ on 2020-08-03